Planning Library · Financial model (corrected & reconciled)
The corrected baseline.
Canonical earned-revenue model. Supersedes the prior Financial Workbook, which stated the baseline Year-1 result three incompatible ways. Rebuilt on a contribution-margin basis with a standardized 26-day operating month (312/year).
§0 — Pre-open tracker
Forecast vs. actual, this quarter.
Operating actuals (café tickets, farm stand revenue, cash flow) begin populating in 2028 when doors open. Until then, this tracker covers what's actually moving: fundraising against the baseline bridge target, and pre-open spend against budget.
👍 on pace · ✋ watch · 👎 off pace · — no data yet
| Metric | Owner | Annual Forecast | YTD Forecast | YTD Actual | Delta % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fundraising | ||||||
| Grants raisedTwo LOIs pending | ED | $60,000 | $15,000 | $8,000 | -46.7% | ✋ |
| Individual donations | ED | $15,000 | $3,000 | $2,400 | -20.0% | 👍 |
| Bridge target (baseline gap)Ties to §1 baseline | Board | $45,083 | — | — | — | — |
| Pre-open spend | ||||||
| Legal & entity setup | ED | $4,500 | $4,500 | $3,850 | -14.4% | 👍 |
| Site / lease diligence | ED | $3,000 | $750 | $620 | -17.3% | 👍 |
| Pre-open marketing & outreach | ED | $2,500 | $600 | — | — | — |
| Consulting / advisoryFront-loaded scope | ED | $6,000 | $1,500 | $2,100 | 40.0% | ✋ |
Delta % compares YTD Actual to YTD Forecast. Positive on fundraising rows is favorable; positive on spend rows means over budget. The scenario model below (§1–§5) is the forecast this tracker measures against.
§0.5 — Framework
The plan behind the plan.
Every number in §1–§5 rolls up from a small set of drivers and assumptions. Naming them here makes it explicit what moves the model — and codifies when we informally update our outlook vs. when we formally re-forecast with the board.
A · Drivers & assumptions
The ten levers.
Change any of these and every other number in this document moves. §5 sensitivity stress-tests each one.
| Driver | Baseline assumption | Feeds |
|---|---|---|
| Café average ticket | $15 | §2 Café |
| Café transactions/day | 25 | §2 Café |
| Café COGS % | 35% | §2 Café |
| Farm stand average basket | $22 | §2 Farm stand |
| Farm stand customers/day | 15 | §2 Farm stand |
| Farm stand gross margin | 33% | §2 Farm stand |
| Operating days/year | 312 (26/mo) | all streams |
| Rent (2,000 SF) | $48,000 | §3 |
| Cook (1 FTE) | $40,000 | §3 |
| Founder salary | $50,000 | §3 |
B · Outlook vs. re-forecast
Two different acts.
Informal
Outlook
A YTD-adjusted view of where the year is likely to land. Updated at the monthly board-chair 1:1 and every QBR. Does not change the plan. It's guidance — "given Q2 actuals, we expect year-end to come in ~10% ahead / behind baseline."
Formal
Re-forecast
A replacement of the §1 baseline. Requires board approval. Triggered when:
- ·Any driver moves >20% from assumption and persists 2+ months.
- ·The fundraising bridge target materially changes.
- ·The opening date shifts.
Related: /calendar (annual planning cycle) · /dashboard (weekly refresh) · /northstar (WhyGos this resources) · /governance (board approval path)
What changed and why
Three errors, now fixed.
- The cash-flow sketch omitted COGS. It subtracted only fixed costs from gross revenue, ignoring ~$110K of cost of goods — producing a $42K surplus that doesn't exist. Rebuilt on a contribution-margin basis.
- The Exec Summary used a mismatched basis. A blended revenue/cost figure that matched neither the unit economics nor the scenario model. Rebuilt to derive directly from the scenario model so every section now tells one story.
- The grant-dependency ratio mixed denominators. Fixed-cost base in one row, revenue in another. Restated consistently as the share of fixed operating costs covered by earned contribution margin.
Operating calendar standardized at 26 days/month (312/year) across all streams.
§1 — Executive financial summary
Does earned activity cover the cost of keeping the doors open?
| Conservative | Baseline | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Café revenue | $67,392 | $117,000 | $179,712 |
| Farm stand revenue | $49,920 | $102,960 | $174,720 |
| Events (net contribution) | $10,980 | $34,890 | $58,800 |
| Contribution margin (after COGS) | $65,892 | $144,917 | $240,359 |
| Fixed operating costs | $156,000 | $190,000 | $228,000 |
| Net earned position | ($90,108) | ($45,083) | +$12,359 |
| Grant / donation to bridge | $90,108 | $45,083 | — |
| Fixed costs covered by earned margin | 42% | 76% | 105% |
At baseline, earned margin covers about three-quarters of fixed costs; the ~$45K gap is the mission layer that grants and donations fund. The optimistic run-rate fully self-funds operations with a small surplus to reinvest — the Year 2–3 goal.
§2 — Unit economics
By revenue stream.
All annualized at 312 operating days.
Café
Revenue anchor — unit = one transaction
Farm stand
Mission backbone — unit = one customer visit
Ticketed events
Margin builder — net contribution
Farm-stand margins are intentionally lower — Groundworks pays farmers above wholesale. That's the mission, not a flaw.
§3 — Fixed operating costs
What it takes to keep the doors open.
| Category | Low | Expected | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rent (2,000 SF) | $36,000 | $48,000 | $60,000 |
| Founder salary (ED) | $45,000 | $50,000 | $55,000 |
| Cook (1 FTE) | $36,000 | $40,000 | $44,000 |
| Insurance (GL, property, WC) | $15,000 | $18,000 | $20,000 |
| Utilities + waste | $6,000 | $9,000 | $12,000 |
| POS, tech, subscriptions | $2,400 | $3,600 | $4,800 |
| Marketing + outreach | $3,000 | $5,000 | $8,000 |
| Maintenance + supplies | $3,600 | $6,000 | $8,400 |
| Bookkeeping + admin | $3,000 | $4,400 | $6,000 |
| Misc / contingency | $6,000 | $6,000 | $9,800 |
| Total annual fixed costs | $156,000 | $190,000 | $228,000 |
| Monthly | $13,000 | $15,833 | $19,000 |
Daily breakeven (baseline): fixed costs are ~$609/day. Baseline earned contribution margin is ~$465/day. The ~$144/day gap is what grants and donations cover at baseline — and what rising café traffic closes over time.
§4 — Three-scenario model (canonical view)
Single source of truth.
| Earned activity | Conservative | Baseline | Optimistic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Café gross profit | $40,435 | $76,050 | $120,407 |
| Farm stand gross profit | $14,477 | $33,977 | $61,152 |
| Events (net contribution) | $10,980 | $34,890 | $58,800 |
| Contribution margin | $65,892 | $144,917 | $240,359 |
| Fixed costs | $156,000 | $190,000 | $228,000 |
| Net earned position | ($90,108) | ($45,083) | +$12,359 |
| Fixed-cost coverage (earned) | 42% | 76% | 105% |
Even in the conservative case, earned activity covers ~42% of operations — this is not a charity case. The single biggest lever is daily café transaction volume.
§5 — Sensitivity analysis
What moves the baseline gap of ($45,083)?
Biggest levers, in order: (1) café transaction volume — each additional daily regular ≈ ~$2,900/yr in gross profit; (2) farm-box subscriptions (a Phase 1B add that nearly closes the gap by itself); (3) event frequency; (4) COGS discipline (~$6K per 5 points).
§7 — Cash-flow sketch · Year 1 baseline
Rebuilt to include COGS.
Contribution-margin basis (revenue minus COGS, then minus fixed). Ramp-up: Month 1 at 50% of run-rate, Month 2 70%, Month 3 85%, Month 4+ 100%. Fixed costs ~$15,833/month throughout.
| Month | Contribution margin | Fixed | Net (before grants) | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (50%) | $6,038 | $15,833 | ($9,795) | ($9,795) |
| 2 (70%) | $8,453 | $15,833 | ($7,380) | ($17,175) |
| 3 (85%) | $10,265 | $15,833 | ($5,568) | ($22,743) |
| 4–11 (100%) | $12,076 /mo | $15,833 /mo | ($3,757) /mo | … |
| 12 (100%) | $12,076 | $15,833 | ($3,757) | ($56,556) |
| Year 1 | $133,007 | $190,000 | ($56,556) | ($56,556) |
Reality check: at baseline, earned activity runs a ~$56.6K deficit in Year 1 before grants/donations (deeper than the steady-state $45K because of the ramp). This is exactly why the plan carries $30–50K working capital in startup and $45–75K in Year-1 grants in the capitalization strategy — together they cover the gap. Monthly burn shrinks to ~$3,800 by Month 4; the path to breakeven is the optimistic run-rate (Year 2–3).
§8 — Assumptions & validation status
What to validate in Phase A.
| Assumption | Value | Confidence | How to validate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Café avg ticket | $15 | Medium | Survey comparable Monterey cafés |
| Café daily transactions | 25 | Medium | Foot-traffic counts; SBDC consult |
| COGS % | 35% | Low | Real pricing from 2–3 Salinas Valley farms; test-menu costing |
| Farm stand basket | $22 | Medium | Benchmark Ecology Center, markets |
| Farm stand daily customers | 15 | Low | Foot-traffic data at target sites |
| Rent (2,000 SF) | $4,000/mo | Medium | 3+ Seaside/Marina broker quotes |
| Insurance | $18,000/yr | Medium | Commercial broker quotes |
| Event attendance | 30–40 | Low | Run 1–2 SD pop-ups |
| Operating days/month | 26 | High (decided) | Non-negotiable admin day |
| Cook salary | $40,000 | Medium | Monterey wage data |
| Ramp-up period | 3 months | Medium | Industry standard; adjust for pre-open buzz |
Validate the two "Low" assumptions first — COGS % and farm-stand traffic move the model the most, and both are resolvable with Monterey County fieldwork. Moving each from estimate to validated is the core Phase A financial deliverable.
Model basis: 26 operating days/month (312/year), consistent across all streams. Contribution-margin method throughout. Planning estimates pending Phase A validation, not audited projections.